Lately, I’ve had a lot of conversations with investors feeling nervous about deal flow — worried about finding enough deals and tempted to stretch their numbers just to keep things moving. So today, I want to drop some advice that I believe can save your business and your sanity:
Stick to Your Numbers. Stay in Your Lane.
Why Sticking to Your Numbers Matters
When deal flow slows down or your pipeline looks lean, it’s natural to get anxious. You might start thinking:
- “Maybe I can push my after-repair value (ARV) a little higher…”
- “What if I cut $5,000 or $10,000 from my renovation budget?”
- “I need to keep my crews busy, so I’ll take a risk on this one.”
Sounds familiar, right? But here’s the thing — stretching your numbers and stepping out of your comfort zone without solid data is a recipe for disaster, not success.
The Double Whammy: How Cutting Corners Costs You Twice
If you inflate your ARV and simultaneously shave your renovation budget, you’re setting yourself up to lose money in two ways:
- Your profit margin shrinks because you’re underestimating costs.
- You’re overestimating the value you’ll get when you sell.
Both add up to a serious hit on your bottom line.
What You Should Do Instead
- Stay calm. Don’t panic just because deals feel scarce.
- Keep running your race. Stick to your tried-and-true numbers.
- Use your tools. Rely on your deal analyzer and repair estimator consistently.
- Be conservative with ARVs. Factor in potential price drops and unexpected renovation overages.
- Remember: it might take longer, but you will find deals. More importantly, you won’t lose money.
What I’m Seeing in the Market
Right now, prices are flattening out. I’m not seeing huge drops unless the property has obvious issues, but I am seeing properties sit longer on the market and more price adjustments happening. In this environment, discipline in your numbers is more crucial than ever.
Final Thoughts
Ignore the drama and noise. Stick to your numbers, stay in your comfort zone, and trust your process. This mindset will keep you profitable and sane, no matter what the market throws at you.